High Expectations in Dallas

The 2023 version of the Dallas Cowboys might just be the best one since they walked off the field in Arizona after Super Bowl XXX with their last championship trophy. That was February of 1996. Here is a quick look at what to expect this season.

FINAL 2023 RECORD

11-6 – If the Cowboys are ready to go from the jump on Sunday night in New York against the Giants to kick off the season, then 11 wins is very realistic. A good start to the season should have them out to a 4-0 start before facing their first real major test on the road in Week 5. If they get to that point, they have a real opportunity to be 11-2 heading into their home game against Philadelphia midway through December. However, the Eagles start a tough 4-game stretch for the Cowboys that could have them limping into the final week of the season needing a win to make the playoffs on a positive note.

Wins – at NY Giants, NY Jets, at Arizona, New England, at LA Chargers, at LA Rams, NY Giants, at Carolina, Washington, Seattle, at Washington.

Loses – at San Francisco, at Philadelphia, Philadelphia, at Buffalo, at Miami, Detroit.

MOST ANTICIPATED GAME

Week 5 at San Francisco – While you could certainly have put either or both Philadelphia games here, but that is just too easy. The one game on the schedule that this team should be geared up to play is the week five tilt in the Bay Area with the team that knocked them out of the playoffs the last two seasons. While the Eagles are the measuring stick of the NFC East, the 49ers are still one of them for the NFC Conference. It’s a battle that could feature some intriguing matchups from both sides – quarterback: Dak Prescott vs. Brock Purdy; running back: Tony Pollard vs. Christian McCaffrey; pass rush: Cowboys LT Tyron Smith vs. 49ers DE Joey Bosa / 49ers LT Trent Williams vs. Cowboys DEs Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys will know who they are as a football team when they leave San Francisco late into the evening on Sunday, October 8.

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If the Cowboys are going to reach the expectations of those in charge at The Star in Frisco, then the team will need production from some key positions. Here are a few players that will be a must watch, for a variety of reasons this season. If they all find success, the Cowboys will be playing into February.

COWBOYS BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER FOR 2023

Tony Pollard (RB) – With the exit of Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard takes over as the lead back for the Cowboys, and it is probably one season later than it should be. He has the speed, shiftiness, pass catching and tackle breaking abilities to give the Cowboys what they lacked the last few years with their RB1 – a home run hitter. If he improves as a pass blocker, then he will be worth the new contract he is sure to get after this season. Pollard finished last season with 1,378 total yards, 1,007 rushing on 193 carries and 371 receiving on 39 catches. That is 3.36 yards per touch. He averaged 5.2 yards per carry, if he just adds the 38 carries that he trailed Elliott by last season, he’ll finish with a nice 1,204 yards rushing. If the Cowboys lean on him, he could easily be a 1,500 yard back this season. He had 12 total touchdowns last season, nine on the ground, and owned five of the Cowboys 10 longest plays of the season, including the top three – a 68-yard catch and run in Week 11 against the Vikings, a 57-yard run in Week 5 against the Rams and a 54-yard run in Week 8 against the Bears.

COWBOYS BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER FOR 2023

Sam Williams (DE) – While the Cowboys have two of the best edge defenders in professional football on the team already – DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, a big season from second year DE Sam Williams would present opponents with an extra-special challenge. Williams played 273 of a possible 1,145 snaps last season, finishing with 22 tackles, four sacks, 10 tackles for loss, one pass defensed, 1 forced fumble and three fumble recoveries. If he can take the next step, he would allow Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to get even more creative with linebacker-defensive end hybrid Parsons. The Cowboys are at their best on defense when they are moving Parsons around, bringing pressure from different points across the offensive front.

COWBOYS TOP 5 PLAYERS TO WATCH FOR 2023

Dak Prescott | Quarterback

Nobody needs a bigger bounce-back year on the Cowboys than quarterback Dak Prescott. The team’s highest paid player was subpar last season, completing just 66.2 percent of his passes – 261 of 394, for 2,860 yards and 23 touchdowns in 12 regular season games. What hurt most was the 15 interceptions he threw, including 11 in the final seven games of the season with the Cowboys fighting for the NFC East championship. He needs more games like his 374-yard, three touchdown day in the Cowboys’ 40-34 win over Philadelphia, than his 14 of 29 day for 134 yards, one interception, two sacks and no touchdowns in a 19-3 loss to Tampa Bay. He’ll be tested early with the Giants and Jets in the first two weeks of the season.

Micah Parsons | Linebacker

Is it possible for Micah Parsons to get even better? I dare say, yes. His tackles went down from his rookie season to last year, 84-65, but his sacks increased from 13 to 13.5 and while he caused three fumbles both years, in 2023 he also recovered three and even returned one for his first touchdown in the NFL. What Parsons does that doesn’t show up on the stat sheet is draw double and triple teams, which in turn free up teammates around him to get put pressure on the opponent’s offense. If they leave one blocker on an island against Parsons, he is going to wreck the play on his own if there’s any hesitation from the opposing quarterback. The Cowboys are close to being the NFL’s best defense, and Parsons is it’s best player. If the defensive backs can hold their own in coverage, he may approach 20 sacks, which has one been done seven times in the last 25 seasons, the last coming when T.J. Watt had 22.5 in 2021. The last, and only Cowboy to do it was DeMarcus Ware, when he had 20 in 2008.

Stephon Gilmore | Safety

The biggest addition of the offseason, Gilmore gives the Cowboys that second lock-down cornerback they have been lack the last several seasons. It feels like the final piece of defensive puzzle that Dan Quinn has been looking for. He joins a defensive backs room that already has a lot of talent in Trevon Diggs, Donovan Wilson, Jayron Kearse and Malik Hooker. Gilmore gives the Cowboys an NFL Defensive Player of the Year (2019) two-time first-team All-Pro (2018, 2019), a five-time pro bowler (2016, 2018-2021) and a Super Bowl champion (LIII). He has 29 career interceptions and posting him opposite Diggs, who has 17 career picks of his own, will give the Cowboys defensive front the time it needs to wreak havoc near the quarterback. Off the field, he is another veteran, who has skins on the wall, to help lead the Cowboys where they have yet figured out how to get to in a long time – the Super Bowl.

Jake Ferguson | Tight End

With the exit of Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson elevates to the Cowboys top tight end. It’s an important role in the Mike McCarthy offense. In the past, the Cowboys have loved lining up in two and three tight end packages. I expect they will continue to use this strategy in 2023, and that means a lot of time for Ferguson, as well as his tight end teammates Peyton Hendershot and rookie Luke Schoonmaker. Ferguson, more of a pass catching TE in college, did a good job in that area during his rookie season last year in Dallas. He caught 19 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns in 430 snaps, just over a third of the plays run by the team. He can expect that to double this season, which means blocking is where he finds his most improvement. He’ll need to be a better blocker than he has been if the Cowboys outside running game is to be affective this season. If he can’t get the job done, he will see his snaps rise, but not by a significant number.

Brandon Aubrey | Kicker

The kicker carousel continues to spin yearly for the Cowboys, and this season they have landed on rookie Brandon Aubrey. Aubrey gets his shot after a solid preseason, where he made 10 of 12 kicks, including eight of nine extra points and field goals of 29 and 59 yards. He did miss a 59-yard field goal, but he did enough to earn the job. At least for time being. If he can duplicate what he did last season in the United States Football League, where he made 35 of 35 extra points, and 14 of 15 field goals, to finish with 77 points for the Birmingham Stallions. It was just his second season kicking a football, after playing soccer in college at Notre Dame and for two years after leaving South Bend. All his kickoffs in the preseason went for touchbacks. He has the leg strength and the accuracy, but I suspect he has a short leash, and the Cowboys will not hesitate to move him out if he makes just the smallest of errors.

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