Game Preview: DAL at BUF
The MATCHUP
DALLAS COWBOYS (10-3) at BUFFALO BILLS (7-6)
Game time: Sunday, 3:25 p.m. CST
TV/radio: FOX Sports, FOX 4 DFW / Compass Media, 105.3 The Fan, KMVK 107.5 La Grande (Spanish)
Broadcast teams: National TV – Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews (sidelines), Tom Rinaldi (sidelines); National Radio (Compass) – Kevin Ray, Danny White; Local Radio (English) – Brad Sham, Babe Laufenberg, Kristi Scales (sidelines); Local Radio (Spanish) – Victor Villalba, Luis Perez
Head Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Officiating Crew: Steve Woods, Jim Mello, Tripp Sutter, Jeff Shears, Frank Steratore, Grantis Bell, Kevin Stine, Gavin Anderson
Last 5 Meetings:
11/28/2019 – Bills 26, Cowboys 15
12/27/2015 – Bills 16, Cowboys 6
11/13/2011 – Cowboys 44, Bills 7
10/08/2007 – Cowboys 25, Bills 24
11/09/2003 – Cowboys 10 Bills 6
All Time Head-to-Head: Cowboys lead 8-5-0
WHAT’s at STAKE
A win and you’re in, it’s as simple as that for the Cowboys on Sunday. A win in Buffalo, where the Cowboys are just 2-3 all-time, and they clinch a berth in the postseason for third time in four years under head coach Mike McCarthy. Definitely within reach after the Cowboys proved last Sunday that they can beat the top teams in the NFL. But a win in Buffalo will take another strong effort on both sides of the ball. A loss to the Bills and the Cowboys can still get into the playoffs in one of the 13 following scenarios:
Rams loss or tie + Seahawks loss or tie
Packers loss + Rams loss or tie + Falcons loss or tie
Packers loss + Falcons loss or tie + Seahawks loss or tie
Packers loss + Falcons loss or tie + Lions win or tie
Buccaneers loss + Vikings loss or tie + Rams loss or tie
Buccaneers loss + Vikings loss or tie + Seahawks loss or tie
Buccaneers loss + Vikings loss or tie + Lions win or tie
Buccaneers loss + 49ers win or tie + Lions win or tie
Buccaneers loss + Lions win or tie + Rams loss or tie
Buccaneers-Packers tie + Rams loss or tie
Buccaneers-Packers tie + Seahawks loss or tie
Buccaneers-Packers tie + Lions win or tie
Seahawks loss or tie + Vikings loss + Cowboys clinches strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the Falcons
WHEN the COWBOYS HAVE the BALL
Behind the play of quarterback Dak Prescott, the Cowboys offense is steamrolling through opponents. They have scored at least 33 points in their last six wins and are averaging 37.7 points since getting blown out in Week 5 on the road in San Francisco. In the eight games since that rough day on the west coast, Prescott has been on fire throwing for 2,444 yards, 23 touchdowns and just two interceptions, while completing 69.7-percent of his passes. He’s added another 140 yards rushing on 32 carries, with two touchdowns. He will have his full complement of weapons in wide receivers CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, KaVontae Turpin and Jalen Tolbert, as well as tight ends Jake Ferguson, Luke Schoonmaker and Peyton Hendershot and running backs Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle, available on Sunday. They will be up against a defense that will give up yards (321.9 per game) but surrenders few points (18.8 per game). The Cowboys will have their opportunities to do damage if they can control the Buffalo pass rush, that features linebacker Terrel Bernard and defensive ends Leonard Floyd, AJ Epenesa, Greg Rousseau and Von Miller, who will be playing in just his second game this season.
WHEN the BILLS HAVE the BALL
For the second straight week, the Cowboys defense faces another excellent quarterback that can pick you apart in the passing game, while also having the ability to punish the opponent in the running game. Josh Allen, like Jalen Hurts, can do it all and for the Cowboys to stop him they will have to be as vigilant with their coverage, containment and spies on Sunday as they were against Philadelphia. Allen, who is averaging 265.2 yards passing and 1.9 touchdowns per game this season through air and another 28.8 yards on the ground, also has an offense full of weapons, with wide receivers Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir, as well as tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid and running backs James Cook and Latavius Murray. The Cowboys defense matches up well with the Buffalo skill players, so this will again come down to the war in the trenches. Can the Cowboys defensive front seven get pressure and keep containment of Allen? If the Cowboys defense front, led by DeMarcus Ware and Micah Parsons, can get pressure, then Allen has the tendency to put the ball in harm’s way with 14 interceptions and four fumbles this season. This one may come down to just how well the Bills offensive line of left tackle Dion Dawkins, left guard David Edwards, center Mitch Morse, right guard O’Cyrus Torrence and right tackle Spencer Brown, can protect Allen when it counts.
KEY COWBOYS to WATCH:
DT Carl Davis – Welcome Carl Davis to the lineup. After Jonathan Hankins went down with a high-ankle sprain against the Eagles, Davis gets the call up from the practice squad and should see some time in the middle of the Cowboys defense. Davis, whom the Cowboys signed to the practice squad on Nov. 16, was a third-round pick by Baltimore in the 2015 NFL Draft. But after three seasons, Davis was cut by the Ravens before the start of the 2019 season and he signed with Cleveland. From there, he played with the Browns, Colts, Jaguars, Patriots and Seahawks until being waived by Seattle on Halloween this season. In his career, Davis has played in 72 games, started 19 of those, made 65 total tackles, 5 tackles for loss, three quarterback hits, three passes knocked down and has been credited with 2.5 sacks. The Cowboys will use him to back up Mazi Smith, Osa Odighizuwa and Neville Gallimore on Sunday.
LT Tyron Smith – Now in his 13th season, Smith is having one of the best seasons of his career. The two-time All Pro has made 10 starts this season, and is on pace to start 13 games, which is the most in the last four seasons of his career. This year he is playing at an all-time high, earning an 84.0 overall grade by Pro Football Focus, which has him ranked as the third tackle this season, behind only Detroit’s Penei Sewell (90.4) and Minnesota’s Christian Darrisaw (84.4). Smith has played 660 total snaps, with 413 of those coming in the passing game, where he is ranked No.1 by PFF with a grade of 89.1, while allowing no sacks, no quarterback hits and only 13 quarterback hurries in his 10 starts. He has been penalized only twice and should be headed toward the ninth Pro Bowl selection of his career.
CB Jourdan Lewis – Now a little over a year removed from his Lisfranc foot injury, Lewis has again become an important piece of the Cowboys defense. Listed as a backup to start the season, Lewis moved into the starting lineup at nickel corner when Trevon Diggs went down and DaRon Bland moved to the outside to replace of Diggs. Now in his seventh season, Lewis has returned to play 526 snaps, 451 of those at nickel in the slot, in 12 games and four starts, where he has made 36 total tackles, three passes knocked down, two forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and one tackle for loss. He has allowed 38 receptions on 53 targets for 465 yards and 196 yards after the catch. Lewis has allowed three touchdowns, but none since a Week 8 win over the Rams. The Cowboys will need more from Lewis this week, where he will have to deal with a receiving group that is led by Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakur.
KEY BILLS to WATCH:
WR Gabe Davis – Now in his fourth season with the Bills, Davis has proved to be the solid complement to lead receiver Stefon Diggs. In 60 games, which averages out to 2.6 catches for 42.9 yards and just 0.43 touchdowns per game in his career. But this season has been up and down for Davis, having four games with six catches or more and another four games where he failed to make more than one catch, including being shut out in a loss to Cincinnati in Week 9 and in last week’s win over Kansas City. But when he has been good, he has been very good – catching nine passes for 89 yards and a touchdown in a win over Tampa Bay in Week 8.
DE Leonard Floyd – Now in his first season in upstate New York, the Buffalo defensive end has had a heck of a season, putting up 11 sacks to lead the Bills through 13 games this season. And now with Von Miller back, Leonard becomes even more dangerous. Leonard can move to the right side or even to an inside tackle spot in pass rush scenarios, with Miller returning to his familiar spot on the right side and Buffalo getting solid play on the left from second-year end Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa. Floyd is not only a sack machine, but a well-rounded defender. He has 26 tackles, seven tackles for loss, 36 quarterback pressures – which included his 11 sacks, seven quarterback hits and 18 quarterback hurries, as well as one pass knocked down and one forced fumble. In his four games against the Cowboys in his career – two with the Bears and two with the Rams, Floyd had 13 tackles and one sack.
LT Dion Dawkins – Now in his seventh season, Dawkins has become the top offensive lineman for the Bills. Dawkins, who has only played left tackle since being drafted in the second round of the 2017 NFL draft, has played 868 snaps this season and 566 have come in the passing game, where he has a 77.8 grade from Pro Football Focus that puts him as the 24th offensive tackle in the NFL when a team is throwing the football. This season he has given up just one sack, seven quarterback hits, 21 quarterback hurries and six holding penalties. In the run game, he has played 302 snaps and been graded at 71.2 by PFF so far this season, committing another five penalties. He’ll have his hands full with DeMarcus Lawrence, Micah Parsons, Dorance Armstrong and the other defensive ends the Cowboys will rotate into the lineup on Sunday.
The BOTTOM LINE
While the Cowboys have dominated their opponents at home this season, on the road they have struggled at times – losing in Arizona, San Francisco and Philadelphia. They have a chance to change the narrative with a win on Sunday afternoon in the unpredictable elements of upstate New York. It won’t be easy. The Bills are still in the fight for a playoff position in the AFC, so if the Cowboys aren’t ready to play it could end up being a long day in Buffalo. Dallas will need another special performance from quarterback Dak Prescott and enough stops on defense to improve to 11-3 and keep the pressure on San Francisco and Philadelphia in the NFC. A loss and the Cowboys can go ahead and pack for that first-round road Wild Card game in four weeks.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Bills 20