Game Preview: DAL at MIA
The MATCHUP
DALLAS COWBOYS (10-4) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (10-4)
Game time: Sunday, 3:25 p.m. CST
TV/radio: FOX Sports, FOX 4 DFW / Compass Media, 105.3 The Fan, KMVK 107.5 La Grande (Spanish)
Broadcast teams: National TV – Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews (sidelines), Tom Rinaldi (sidelines); National Radio (Compass) – Kevin Ray, Danny White; Local Radio (English) – Brad Sham, Babe Laufenberg, Kristi Scales (sidelines); Local Radio (Spanish) – Victor Villalba, Luis Perez
Head Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Officiating Crew: Terry Killens, Patrick Holt, Tim Podraza, Jason Ledet, Chad Hill, Rich Martinez, Tyler Cerimeli, Mark Bitar
Last 5 Meetings:
09/22/2019 – Cowboys 31, Dolphins 6
11/22/2015 – Cowboys 24, Dolphins 14
11/24/2011 – Cowboys 20, Dolphins 19
09/16/2007 – Cowboys 37, Dolphins 20
11/27/2003 – Dolphins 40, Cowboys 21
All Time Head-to-Head: Cowboys lead 8-7-0
WHAT’s at STAKE
Now that the Cowboys have clinched a playoff berth, all sights are set on an NFC East title and the top spot in the NFC for the duration of the postseason. While that last one will be hard to reach, the NFC East crown is well within their reach. Dallas holds the top spot, despite being tied with Philadelphia at 10-4, and if they can beat Miami on Sunday and win their final two regular season games over Detroit and Washington, then they will again be champions of the NFC East. That will guarantee them at least one home playoff game. A loss to Miami and the Cowboys will again be in line to open the playoffs on the road for the second-straight season.
WHEN the COWBOYS HAVE the BALL
This Cowboys offense is built for the indoors – heavy on speed that works best when on the field turf of AT&T Stadium. So, Sunday could be another tough afternoon against a good defense, outdoors on real grass. In the five games the Cowboys have played outside this season, they are 2-3 with wins over the Giants and Panthers and losses to San Francisco, Philadelphia and Buffalo. The road is also where quarterback Dak Prescott has struggled the most this season. He has averaged just over 20 completions and 198.6 yards passing per game, and if you take out the 29 completion and 374-yard performance in Philadelphia, he would only be averaging 18 completions and 154.7 yards. He has thrown just six touchdowns, three coming in Philly, and has been intercepted four times. More importantly, the offense has been stagnant outdoors, averaging just 274.8 yards per game, which is 110 yards below their season average. The Cowboys offense will be tested on Sunday by a Dolphins pass rush that has four players – cornerbacks Justin Bethel and Kader Kohou and linebackers Andrew Van Ginkel and Bradley Chubb, ranked in the top 30 of pass rushers in the NFL this season by Pro Football Focus. Chubb leads the Dolphins with 62 quarterback pressures – 12 sacks, 10 quarterback hits and 40 quarterback hurries. The matchup of the afternoon will be Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb against Miami cornerback Jalen Ramsey.
WHEN the DOLPHINS HAVE the BALL
The Cowboys defense will be facing the top offense in the NFL this season. Led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins are averaging 414.4 yards and 31.5 points per game and that is the best in the league. Tagovailoa has completed 325 passes for 3,921 yards and 25 touchdowns, with just 10 interceptions. He has the league’s best receiving duo this season, with league leader Tyreek Hill (97 catches/1,542 yards/12 touchdowns) and Jaylen Waddle (71 catches/964 yards/4 touchdowns), but they will be going up against what has been the Cowboys strongest unit this season – the defensive backs – corners DaRon Bland, Stephon Gilmore, Jourdan Lewis and safeties Jayron Kearse, Malik Hooker and Donovan Wilson. If the Cowboys can slow down the Miami air attack, the Dolphins have a strong running game to lean on with lead back Raheem Mostert (198 carries/966 yards/18 touchdowns) and De’Von Achane (72 carries/613 yards/7 touchdowns). The Cowboys run defense, which has been suspect all season, was gashed by the Bills the last time out, giving the Dolphins the perfect blueprint on how to beat them. However, the Dolphins offensive line is a mess – losing starting center Connor Williams and left tackle Isaiah Wynn to season-ending injuries. Right guard Robert Hunt has been ruled out for Sunday and three other current starters – left tackle Terron Armstead, center Liam Eichenberg and right tackle Austin Jackson, are listed as questionable on the weekly injury report.
KEY COWBOYS to WATCH:
DB DaRon Bland – The Cowboys cornerback is having an All-Pro season with eight interceptions that include an NFL record five returned for touchdowns. But Bland was also torched by the Eagles just two games ago for xxx yards and two touchdowns. The Cowboys will need the All-Pro version of Bland on Sunday afternoon, facing off against what could be the best wide receiver duo in the NFL – Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who account for just under 63-percent of the Dolphins passing attack this season. Bland has been the find of the season for the Cowboys, coming in and taking over at outside corner when starter Trevon Diggs went down with an injury. Bland is currently the third ranked defensive back in the NFL with a 90.0 grade from Pro Football Focus. With a former defensive Player of the Year on the other side in Stephon Gilmore, Bland has been picked on this season with 76 targets. He has allowed 41 receptions for 535 yards in 486 snaps, been flagged four times, has six pass break ups, three missed interceptions and three touchdowns allowed, but is only allowing opposing quarterbacks a 49.9 rating against him. He’ll have his hands full again on Sunday.
LG Tyler Smith – If the Cowboys are going to get a successful running game going on Sunday afternoon it will have to be behind left guard Tyler Smith. Smith will anchor the left side of the line that is most likely to have Chuma Edoga starting at left tackle for an injured Tyron Smith. In just his second season, Tyler Smith is the 11th ranked guard in the NFL with a 76.1 grade by Pro Football Focus, five spots ahead of teammate Zack Martin (71.1 PFF grade). Smith has earned an 85.2 grade in run blocking by PFF, which is fourth best this season, behind only the Falcons’ Chris Lindstrom (89.8 PFF grade), the Broncos’ Quinn Meinerz (89.6 PFF grade) and the Rams’ Kevin Dotson (87.0). Smith has played 837 snaps this season, 539 of those in a pass blocking set where he has given up 16 quarterback pressures – one sack, two quarterback hits and 13 quarterback hurries. He has also committed 12 penalties.
ED/LB Micah Parsons – For Cowboys super defender Micah Parsons it has been an up and down season by his standards. With 12.5 sacks through 14 games and 704 snaps, Parsons is on pace for at least 15 sacks this season which would be a single-season high. But while the sacks are up a tick, his tackles are down. Parsons is on pace for just 55 tackles this season, which would be the lowest in his three seasons. However, that could change with another big day like he had in Philadelphia earlier this season, when he had nine tackles and 1.5 sacks. He followed that up with a six tackle, 2.5 sack performance in Carolina, but in the three games since he has been kept quiet – six total tackles and one sack. With a banged-up Dolphins offensive line in front of him that had four players end up on the injury report this week, Parsons, the second ranked pass rusher in the NFL with a 93.8 grade by PFF behind only Cleveland’s Myles Garrett (94.4 PFF grade), could be in store for another big game.
KEY DOLPHINS to WATCH:
WR Jaylen Waddle – While Tyreek Hill is the show, Jaylen Waddle is what makes the show go smoothly for the Miami passing attack. Waddle has caught 71 of 100 targets for 964 yards this season. And while he only has four touchdowns, Waddle is a first down waiting to happen, averaging 13.6 yards per catch this season, he has 46 catches that moved the chains for the Dolphins offense. After 13 games this season, Waddle is ranked the No. 3 receiver in the league with a grade of 90.8 by Pro Football Focus. His versatility allows the head coach Mike McDaniel to move him around the offensive formation. Waddle has played 96-percent of the snaps this season. He has run 368 routes, with 93 coming from the slot and 285 out wide. He averages 2.62 yards per every route run this season, which is fifth in the NFL behind only Hill (4.15), San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk (3.00), Houston’s Nico Collins (2.92) and Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson (2.78).
DE Christian Wilkins – Now in his fifth season, Miami defensive end Christian Wilkins has become a stalwart on a defense that is becoming one of the best in the NFL. He is the new breed of defensive lineman in the league, playing anywhere along the front. Listed as an edge, Wilkins has played most of his snaps this season in the interior of the defensive line. Of his 708 snaps played, he has taken 519 of those at nose tackle or defensive tackle, with the other 189 snaps coming while lined up over the offensive tackle or outside the offensive tackle. This season, Wilkins is eighth on the team with 54 tackles. He is second, behind only Bradley Chubb, with eight sacks in 14 games played, while leading the team in tackles for loss with 11. Wilkins also has two pass break ups and one fumble recovery. Behind a relentless pass rush, Wilkins has 50 total quarterback pressures that includes 13 quarterback hits and another 28 quarterback hurries. If the Dolphins can find a weak spot across the Cowboys offensive front, then Wilkins will put there to exploit it.
FS Jevon Holland – The glue that holds the Miami defense together, free safety Jevon Holland is ranked as the second-best defensive back in the NFL this season with a grade of 90.7 by Pro Football Focus, behind only Chicago cornerback Jaylon Johnson (91.5 PFF grade) and just in front of Dallas’ DaRon Bland (90.0 PFF grade). Holland has played 397 snaps in 10 games and has allowed 19 catches on 29 targets for 192 yards and one touchdown. He has not been flagged this season, while breaking up four passes and grabbing one interception, that he returned 99 yards for a touchdown in a 34-13 win over the New York Jets in the NFL’s first ever Black Friday game. Holland is also key to the Dolphins run defense. He is second on the team in tackles with 70, including three tackles for loss and three forced fumbles. His play has helped the Dolphins hold opponents to just 90.4 yards rushing per game this season, fourth best in the NFL. Appearing on the Miami injury report this week with sore knees, Holland is listed as questionable after being limited in practice on Friday.
The BOTTOM LINE
The Cowboys are in the playoffs, so Sunday in Miami is not a must win. But if they want to win the NFC East and earn a home playoff game, then Dallas will have to win out and that starts with beating the Dolphins. The Cowboys offense has struggled outside this season, where quarterback Dak Prescott has thrown just six touchdowns and been intercepted four times in three losses. The Cowboys need another performance like they had in Philadelphia earlier in the season, putting up 406 yards of total offense in a 28-23 loss. If they play like they did in San Francisco, Buffalo and even Carolina, it will be a long afternoon in the Florida sunshine.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Cowboys 20