Game Preview: DAL at WAS
The MATCHUP
DALLAS COWBOYS (11-5) at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-12)
Game time: Sunday, 3:25 p.m. CST
TV/radio: FOX Sports, FOX 4 DFW / Compass Media, 105.3 The Fan, KMVK 107.5 La Grande (Spanish)
Broadcast teams: National TV – Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews (sidelines), Tom Rinaldi (sidelines); National Radio (Compass) – Kevin Ray, Danny White; Local Radio (English) – Brad Sham, Babe Laufenberg, Kristi Scales (sidelines); Local Radio (Spanish) – Victor Villalba, Luis Perez
Head Referee: Shawn Smith
Officiating Crew: Bryan Neale, Jay Bilbo, Jeff Seeman, Dyrol Prioleau, Clay Reynard, Dino Paganelli, Mike Wimmer, Sebrina Brunson
Last 5 Meetings:
11/28/2019 – Cowboys 45, Commanders 10
12/27/2015 – Commanders 26, Cowboys 6
11/13/2011 – Cowboys 25, Commanders 10
10/08/2007 – Cowboys 56, Commanders 14
11/09/2003 – Cowboys 27, Football Team 20
All Time Head-to-Head: Cowboys lead 77-48-2
WHAT’s at STAKE
The Cowboys are still in a battle for the NFC East crown and the No. 2 seed from the NFC in the postseason, and a win over the Washington Commanders will lock up both. So, no time to rest the starters for the Cowboys. As for Washington, it has been another dismal season, but a win over Dallas would give them a warm fuzzy feeling heading into the offseason. If the Cowboys can’t get the win, which is not unheard of after losing the season finale last year in Washington, and Philadelphia beats the Giants, then the Cowboys will fall to, at best, the No. 4 seed. That will send them on the road to open the playoffs on Wild Card weekend.
WHEN the COWBOYS HAVE the BALL
With plenty still on the line, the Cowboys are going to trot out one of the more potent offenses in the NFL this season on Sunday in Washington to go up against the worst defense in the league. Dak Prescott has been lighting up defensives all season, and that includes a 22 completion, 331-yard, four touchdown and 10.3 yards per pass attempt average performance in a win over Washington. Prescott will have a full complement of weapons, including wide receivers CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup and tight ends Jake Ferguson and Luke Schoonmaker to go against the 31st ranked pass defense in the league, led by cornerback Benjamin St-Juste, who leads the Commanders with 17 pass break ups, and safeties Kamren Curl, the team leader in tackles with 115, and Terrell Burgess. In the run game, the Cowboys will need a good effort from their offensive line if they want to get running backs Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle on track. To do that, they will have to find a way to block the Washington defensive front, led by tackle Daron Payne and middle linebacker Cody Barton. Barton is second on the team in tackles with 113, while Payne has 50 tackles and is tops on defense with 13 tackles for loss. With a motivated Cowboys offense, the points scored could rise quickly for Dallas on Sunday.
WHEN the COMMANDERS HAVE the BALL
Washington quarterback Sam Howell will be making the 18th start of his career on Sunday, right where it all began for him – against Dallas at home in the last regular season game of the year. Howell, who has thrown for 3,793 yards this season. leads a Washington offense that ranks 21st in yards gained at 5,137. Howell will be looking for the most experienced part of the Commanders offense when he drops back to pass on Sunday in wide receivers Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson and tight end Logan Thomas, but he will have to do it behind an offensive line that has given up 61 sacks. That offensive line, which is led by right guard Sam Cosmi, who has played 1.054 snaps this season, will have to hold off a Cowboys defensive front led by defensive ends DeMarcus Lawrence (4 sacks), Sam Williams (4 sacks), Dorance Armstrong (6.5 sacks) and Dante Fowler Jr. (2.5 sacks), edge Micah Parsons (13 sacks) and defensive tackles Osa Odighizuwa (3 sacks), Johnathan Hankins (3 sacks) and Neville Gallimore (1 sack). When the Commanders run the football, it will be a heavy dose of Brian Robinson Jr., who leads the team with 708 yards rushing on 169 carries. Howell is second on the team with 264 yards rushing, while Antonio Gibson has 257 yards on 63 carries. With the Cowboys history of stopping the run this season, Robinson will be a big part of the offense until the Cowboys either shut him down or get a big enough lead to force Washington to throw the ball on every play.
KEY COWBOYS to WATCH:
RB Tony Pollard – The Cowboys need the running game to come to life and that means lead running back Tony Pollard needs to come to life. Pollard leads the team in rushing yards with 935, rushing attempts with 235, rushing touchdowns with five and rushing first downs with 52. But he has just six runs of 20 or more yards, with a long this season of 31 yards. Pollard’s 4.0 yards per carry is the worst of his 5-year career, but with 73 yards on Sunday against Washington, the worst defense in the NFL through 17 weeks, and he will set a new season high. Pollard also has 53 receptions, the most for him in a season, but for just 295 yards and no touchdowns. In the Week 12 win over Washington, Pollard finished with 13 carries for 79 yards and one touchdown. His 6.1 yards per carry average against the Commanders is his best effort this season.
QB Dak Prescott – Dak Prescott is having one of the best seasons of his 8-year career, earning his third Pro Bowl selection with one game to go in the regular season. Prescott has thrown for 4,237 yards on 379 completions and a 68.4-percent completion percentage. He has tossed 32 touchdowns and just eight interceptions, and his 4-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio is tops in the NFL this season. He will carry a 104.2 quarterback rating into the Sunday afternoon’s game, while being sacked 39 times, the second most in his career. Prescott added running the football back into his game this season, carrying the ball 55 times, the most in his last five seasons, for 242 yards, the most in his last four seasons. In 12 career starts against Washington, Prescott has completed 243 of 374 passes for 2,866 yards and 23 touchdowns. On Thanksgiving Day this season, he torched the Commanders for 331 yards, his most ever against Washington, and four touchdowns.
S Donovan Wilson – After missing the first two games of the season, Donovan Wilson has been one of the top players and tacklers on the Cowboys defense this season. Wilson is third on the team in tackles with 83 – 52 solo, and also has two tackles for loss this season. He also has two pass break ups, one interception, one forced fumble and two fumble recoveries. Wilson is coming off the two best games of his season, where he had 12 tackles in the loss to Miami and then followed that up with 11 tackles and his one interception of the season in the win over Detroit. In the six games he has played against Washington in five seasons, Wilson has 36 tackles and that includes a 10-tackle performance in the Cowboys win over Washington on Thanksgiving Day in 2020. On turkey day this season, Wilson had six tackles, one stuff and one pass break up.
KEY COMMANDERS to WATCH:
DT Daron Payne – After midseason trades and injuries, Daron Payne is the best player left on a Washington defensive front that has not been very good this season. Going into the season finale, Payne has 50 tackles – 31 of which are solo, four sacks, 13 tackles for loss, four pass break ups, two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Now in his sixth season with the Washington franchise, Payne has played against the Cowboys 11 times and has 40 tackles, 3.5 sacks and one forced fumble. His best game came against Dallas in December of the 2021 season, when he finished with six tackles and one sack. In the game this season, Payne recorded just three tackles.
CB Benjamin St-Juste – Now in his third season in Washington, Benjamin St-Juste is having a breakout year. He has single-season highs in tackles (63 total – 48 solo), forced fumbles with two, interceptions with one and pass break ups with 17, which is tied for third in the NFL this season. St-Juste, who’s one interception came in the Commanders 24-16 win over Atlanta in Week 6, has played in all 16 games this season, which includes a 3-tackle performance on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas. With Kendal Fuller out for the rest of the season, St-Juste has been tasked with covering the top wide receiver on the opposing team. He will have his hands full on Sunday with CeeDee Lamb lining up across from him.
RB Brian Robinson Jr. – The Commanders have found their running back of the future in Brian Robinson Jr. Now in his second season in Washington, Robinson has not had an easy go of it behind an offensive line that has struggled. Together they have produced just the 24th best running offense in the league. Robinson has played in 14 games, carrying the ball 169 times for 708 yards for a 4.2 yards per carry average, with five touchdowns, a long run of 29 yards and 46 first downs. All below what was expected from him this season, but hard to argue against with a team that has spent most of the season behind on the scoreboard and needing to throw the football. Robinson has made 33 catches for 358 yards and three touchdowns this season. In his career, he has played the Cowboys just once, this season, and put up 53 yards rushing on 15 attempts, he also caught two balls for 11 yards.
The BOTTOM LINE
You can throw out last year’s season finale, a 26-6 win for the Commanders, when the Cowboys were locked into the No. 4 seed and playing for nothing. This season is different. As a whole, the Cowboys are the much better team, but if you look position by position, you can see the level of talent on both sides, and it’s not far off at several positions. However, the Commanders have nothing to play for and the Cowboys need a victory to win the NFC East and to hold onto the No. 2 seed in the conference. No matter what happens, the Cowboys will be playing on Wild Card weekend and the Commanders will be conducting season-ending exit interviews.
Prediction: Cowboys 37, Commanders 17