Game Preview: LAR at DAL
The MATCHUP
DALLAS COWBOYS (4-2) vs. LOS ANGELES RAMS (3-4)
Game time: Sunday, 12 p.m. CST
TV/radio: FOX 4 / Compass Media, Sirius XM-NFL, 105.3 The Fan, KMVK 107.5 La Grande (Spanish)
Broadcast teams: National TV – Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews (sideline), Tom Rinaldi (sideline); National Radio (Compass) – Kevin Ray, Danny White; Local Radio (English) – Brad Sham, Babe Laufenberg, Kristi Scales; Local Radio (Spanish) – Victor Villalba, Luis Perez, Carlos Nava (sideline)
Head Referee: Adrian Hill
Officiating Crew: Roy Ellison, David Oliver, Brett Bergman, Mearl Robinson, Jim Quirk, Greg Steed, Roddy Ames, Joe Wollan
Last 5 Meetings:
10/09/2022 – Cowboys 22, L.A. Rams 10
09/13/2020 – L.A Rams 20, Cowboys 17
12/15/2019 – Cowboys 44, L.A. Rams 21
01/12/2019 – L.A. Rams 30, Cowboys 22
10/01/2017 – L.A. Rams 35, Cowboys 30
All Time Head-to-Head: Cowboys lead 19-18-0
WHAT’s at STAKE
The Cowboys had a week off to heal up, 13 days to prepare for the Rams, play them at AT&T Stadium and that should be a formula for success. But this is the Cowboys, who went to Green Bay after the Bye Week last season and got beat 31-28 in overtime. Dallas will need to build on the success it found against the Chargers the last time they played. If the Cowboys can get another efficient game from quarterback Dak Prescott, who was a smooth 21 of 30 passing for 272 yards and two total touchdowns against the Chargers, and the defense plays up to their pedigree then they should be 5-2 heading into their showdown next week in Philadelphia.
WHEN the COWBOYS HAVE the BALL
Through six games, the Cowboys have relied on a short passing game to make their offense go. A heavy dose of it on Sunday means the Cowboys will need long drives to score touchdowns against a Rams defense that is allowing just 20.1 points per game this season. The Cowboys, ranked 27th, have struggled in that area this season, scoring touchdowns just over 39-percent of the time when entering the opponents red zone this season. The Rams defense sits 13th overall in total yards allowed per game (326.0) this season – 11th against the pass (209.0) and 20th against the run (117.0). The Cowboys, who are averaging 329.8 yards per game this season – 210.2 passing and 119.7 rushing, will look to their stars – quarterback Dak Prescott, running back Tony Pollard and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, to carry them to the win.
WHEN the RAMS HAVE the BALL
The Rams are going to come out in 11 personnel and stay in the one running back, one tight end formation the entire time they have the ball. It’s what worked for them during their Super Bowl winning season of 2021, so the formula for winning stays the same. Quarterback Matthew Stafford still makes the offense go for the Rams, but with almost a whole new cast of characters at the skill positions. Cooper Kupp remains the constant at one of the wide receiver spots, but he is joined by rookie Puka Nacua, who leads the NFL in catches with 58 through Week 7, and Tutu Atwell at the other two, with tight end Tyler Higbee rounding out the receiving core. Add Van Jefferson and all five guys are averaging over 10 yards per catch this season. On the ground, the Rams are not the same team that started the season. They have lost two running backs and are now starting Darrell Henderson, who was jobless less than two weeks ago.
KEY COWBOYS to WATCH:
DE DeMarcus Lawrence – One of the three longest tenured Cowboys, Lawrence is having a solid season racking up 16 tackles, two sacks, four tackles for loss and two passes knocked down, while averaging just 51-percent of the snaps played on defense this season. Because of the play of Dorance Armstrong, Sam Williams, Dante Fowler Jr. and Chauncey Golston in backup roles at defensive end, the Cowboys have been able to keep Lawrence fresh for those crucial late game situations. That was important for Dallas last time out, with their late stop of Chargers while holding just a 3-point lead. Lawrence, who is headed for the Cowboys Ring of Honor, has 402 tackles, 56.5 sacks, 19 forced fumbles, seven fumble recoveries, 16 passes knocked down and one touchdowns in his 10-year career.
WR Brandin Cooks – Cooks had his best game for the Cowboys their last time out in the win over the Chargers, where he made four catches for 36 yards and a touchdown, as well as one carry for 14 yards. It was the second straight game the Cowboys utilized his speed in the running game. But the Cowboys brought Cooks in to stretch the field and make big catches, however his longest this season is just 17 yards. His 8.4 yards a catch is not what the team had in mind, which is more the product of the dink-and-dunk offense the Cowboys have employed this season than Cooks and his current skill set. Maybe, just maybe, the Cowboys will start utilizing his big play abilities.
LT Tyron Smith – Smith showed up late in the week on the Cowboys injury list with a sore neck but is likely to play. That’s good for a Cowboys offense that will be going up against defensive end Aaron Donald, one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL. In 239 snaps this season, Smith has been called for just on penalty – a holding call in the fourth quarter of a blowout win against the Jets, and no sacks. Since 2018, a span of 3,133 snaps, Smith has given up just four sacks and been called for 27 penalties. In his career, that is now in its 13th season, Smith has played 9,902 snaps and allowed 28 sacks and been called for 86 penalties. The last time Smith play against the Rams, Week 1 of the 2020 season, he was called for one false start. The Cowboys need a healthy Tyron Smith if they want to have continued success in both the passing and running games the rest of the season.
KEY RAMS to WATCH:
LILB Ernest Jones – The third-year linebacker from South Carolina is on pace to shatter the franchise record for tackles in a season with 163. Jones currently has 67 tackles, good enough for seventh in the NFL this season, while being the primary run stopping linebacker in the Rams 3-4 defense. He has one sack, one pass knocked down and eight tackles for loss, but is coming off his worst game of the season, where he recorded just four tackles. If the Cowboys are to find success in the running game, they will have to find Jones and get a blocker on him, or he will wreck their plans.
WR Cooper Kupp – Kupp has been almost unstoppable since joining the NFL in 2017 as a third round pick out of Eastern Washington. He has already racked up 6,624 yards on 525 catches in his career, with the only thing stopping him has been injury. This season, after missing the first four weeks, he has returned to catch 17 passes for 295 yards, with one touchdown and a 17.4 yards per catch average in three games. Despite his play, he no longer possesses the biggest threat for the Cowboys defense, with what rookie Puka Nucua has done this season. However, you better not lose track of him. Kupp will face a steady diet of DaRon Bland and Stephon Gilmore, as the Cowboys try to limit his big play ability.
DE Aaron Donald – Donald was a game-wrecking defensive end when he entered the league in 2014, and he is still that player today. The Rams legend sits third on the franchise’s all-time sack list with 105.5, and that is sure to grow. This season, he has just 29 tackles and 2.5 sacks, but has been held without a sack for the last three games. Donald is on pace for 70 tackles, which would be the second-best season of his career, but the sacks have fallen off since he scored 20.5 of them in 2018. Last season he had just five in 11 games, and this year is on pace to finish with a measly seven if he stays healthy. Donald can expect a heavy dose of double teams on Sunday, and if he can find a way to beat it then the Cowboys are in trouble.
The BOTTOM LINE
With one of the tougher schedules over the final 11 weeks of the season, the Cowboys need to stack wins against teams that are supposed to beat. That starts Sunday with the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams aren’t the team they once were – they don’t have a running game; they have several aging superstars – Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald and their pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Cowboys should be able to take advantage of all three, put this one in the win column and turn their attention to the Eagles.
Prediction: Cowboys 23, Rams 21