Game Preview: NE at DAL
The MATCHUP
DALLAS COWBOYS (2-1) vs NEW ENGLAND PATROITS (1-2)
Game time: Sunday, 3:25 p.m. CST
TV/radio: CBS / Compass Media, Sirius XM-NFL, 105.3 The Fan, KVMK 107.5 La Grande (Spanish)
Broadcast teams: National TV – Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson (sideline); National Radio – Kevin Ray, Danny White; Local Radio (English) – Brad Sham, Babe Laufenberg, Kristi Scales; Local Radio (Spanish) – Victor Villalba, Luis Perez, Carlos Nava
Head Referee: Scott Novak
Officiating Crew: Mark Pellis, Brian Sakowski, Mark Stewart, Tra Boger, David Meslow, Terrence Miles, Matt Sumstine, Tim England
Last 5 Meetings:
10/17/2021– Cowboys 35, Patriots 29 (OT)
11/24/2019– Patriots 13, Cowboys 9
10/11/2015 – Patriots 30, Cowboys 6
10/16/2011 – Patriots 20, Cowboys 16
10/14/2007 – Patriots 48, Cowboys 27
All Time Head-to-Head: Cowboys lead series 8-6-0
WHAT’s at STAKE
Hard for there to be a must win game in Week 4 of a 17-week season, but this might be one for the Cowboys. After what happened in Arizona last week and a schedule that has San Francisco, the LA Chargers and Philadelphia over the following four weeks, a win against a 1-2 Patriots team that is just not as good is a must for the Cowboys. Dallas has the better quarterback, the better offense, the better pass rush, the better defense and a kicker that is on a hot streak, so a loss on Sunday should be unacceptable. But then you remember that Bill Belichick is still the head coach of New England, and you know there will be things in the game you haven’t prepared for. The Cowboys better be ready, the Patriots will be.
WHEN the COWBOYS HAVE the BALL
After the first two weeks, where the Cowboys blew out their opponent, it was hard to get a feel for exactly what the offense would look like under new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and play caller, and head coach, Mike McCarthy. Last week in Arizona, it was obvious – the Cowboys are going to ask quarterback Dak Prescott to be more of a game manager for long drives that take very few chances down the field and eat the clock. This offense doesn’t trust Prescott to make the deep throws, so they have him throwing quick short passes that let his pass catchers – CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, Jake Ferguson and others, make the big yards with their legs after the catch. In 102 throws, Prescott has taken a deep shot just 11 times. When they go to the ground, it will be a lot of Tony Pollard and a little of Rico Dowdle. Pollard comes into Sunday as the most used back in the NFL through three games, with 74 touches, including 62 carries. But the big matchup will be the Cowboys offensive line, which has been banged up, against the Patriots front seven and sack master Matt Judon. Dallas needs for Zack Martin, Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz, who all missed last week’s game, to be back in the lineup. If not, it could be another long day for Prescott and the Cowboys offense.
WHEN the PATRIOTS HAVE the BALL
With Mac Jones at quarterback, the Patriots employ a controlled short passing game and a between-the-tackles running game to make their offense go. Behind an offensive line that has 2022 first round pick Cole Strange, who is questionable for Sunday’s game, at left guard, and a whole lot of nothing else – two sixth round picks, an undrafted center and a journeyman seventh-round pick at left tackle, the Patriots like to run the ball up the middle with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott to make it easier on that offensive line. They have hammered the middle run 45 of 86 called runs this season, and that won’t change on Sunday against a Cowboys defense that was gashed last week in the Arizona desert. When the Patriots go to the air, it is the short passing game they use, because of their O-line. Out of 125 throws, Jones has taken a deep shot just 23 times. He likes to check it down to tight ends Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki or one of the two running backs. When he does target a wide receiver, it will be Kendrick Bourne, who leads the team in receiving yards, along with DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Shuster and Ty Montgomery. If the Cowboys can get to Jones, who has been sacked six times this season, they should be able to shut down this offensive attack.
KEY COWBOYS to WATCH:
FB Hunter Luepke – After going without a true fullback on the roster the last few seasons, the Cowboys decided they needed to have one after the training camp that Luepke put in. The undrafted free agent out of North Dakota State has just one carry in three games so far in the regular season, but he gives Cowboys the most value in blocking. His work in the running game has helped Tony Pollard gain 264 yards in three games, good enough for fifth in the NFL this season. His play count will continue to rise as McCarthy and Schottenheimer find more ways to utilize his unique skill set. He has excellent hands and caught the only pass thrown his way this season, a 12-yard gain against Arizona.
DE Dorance Armstrong – Listed as the starter at right defensive end on the depth chart, but that belongs to Micah Parsons. Armstrong is really the backup at left defensive tackle, spelling DeMarcus Lawrence during the game. He has been excellent this season, exploding out the gate with two sacks and three tackles for loss in the Cowboys win over the Giants. He has slowed with just a couple of tackles over the last two games, while seeing his playing time increase from 18 plays against the Giants to 22 against Arizona. Now in his sixth season, Armstrong has established himself as a quality defensive end and a big part of the Cowboys defense.
CB Stephon Gilmore – The Cowboys don’t chase certain wide receiver matchups, so it is status quo for Gilmore after the injury to Trevon Diggs before the Arizona game. But it has been a slow start for the 12-year veteran, who has given up nine receptions on 17 targets this season. He did intercept Daniel Jones in his first game as a Cowboys, but since then he has just one pass defensed in the loss to Arizona and 12 total tackles. Gilmore has a chance for a big day on Sunday, with a quarterback that will turn the football over – 28 interceptions and 12 fumbles in 35 games.
KEY PATRIOTS to WATCH:
TE Hunter Henry – The Patriots like the short passing game almost as much as the Cowboys, and Hunter Henry is a big reason why it works in New England. So far this season, he has 13 catches for 125 yards and two touchdowns. That is two of the six the Patriots have scored offensively in three weeks. His 13 catches for 125 yards have him on pace for the biggest season of his 8-year career, and it wouldn’t be close. After putting up 50 and 41 catches in his first two seasons with the Patriots, Henry is on pace for over 73 catches this year. His best season to date came during the 2020 season, when he had 60 catches in 14 games with the Chargers. He is on pace for 708 yards, which would eclipse his best season (2019, Chargers) by 56 yards.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson – Everyone wants to talk Ezekiel Elliott’s return to AT&T Stadium, but it will be the running of Stevenson that the Cowboys will have to watch out for. After playing in just 12 games as a rookie and gaining 606 yards, Stevenson played the full season last year and rushed for 1,040 yards. Three games into this season and his carries have increased each game, handling the ball 12, 15 and 19 times, respectively. His 46 carries this season, is good enough for 11th in the NFL. While he doesn’t have the yards, just 134 so far, this season, it is more the problems up front on the offensive line, than a regression from Stevenson. The Cowboys will see a healthy dose of him and his backfield mate on Sunday.
LB/DE Matt Judon – Judon is one of the premier pass rushers in the NFL, and he is off to a hot start with four sacks in the first three games this season. In his 37 games with the Patriots, including the three this season, he has 32 sacks and 132 tackles. In his five seasons in Baltimore, he had 34.5 sacks and 235 tackles. Listed as the weakside linebacker on the Patriots depth chart, he will be lining up on the end and rushing the passer. Depending on the Cowboys formation, Judon will be coming from the weakside and that will mean he will battle with both Dallas tackles. When the teams met in 2021, Judon finished with 6 tackles and no sacks in the Cowboys 35-29 win.
The BOTTOM LINE
The Cowboys are the better team, in all phases of the game, but they were the better team going into last week’s game as well. This week, a better prepared Cowboys team takes the field, ready to prove last week was an anomaly. If they can overcome the injury bug that has bitten them as of late, then Dallas improves to 3-1 with their anticipated matchup with San Francisco next week.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Patriots 16