Game Preview: WAS at DAL
The MATCHUP
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-7) at DALLAS COWBOYS (7-3)
Game time: Thursday, 3:30 p.m. CST
TV/radio: CBS Sports | CBS 11 DFW | Compass Media, Sirius XM-NFL, Westwood One Radio, 105.3 The Fan, KMVK 107.5 La Grande (Spanish)
Broadcast teams: National TV – Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson (sidelines); National Radio (Compass) – Kevin Ray, Danny White; National Radio (Westwood One) John Sadak, Mike Mayock; Local Radio (English) – Brad Sham, Babe Laufenberg, Kristi Scales (sidelines); Local Radio (Spanish) – Victor Villalba, Luis Perez, Carlos Nava (sidelines)
Head Referee: Bill Vinovich
Officiating Crew: Alex Moore, Dale Keller, Mark Perlman, Joe Blubaugh, Jimmy Buchanan, Jimmy Russell, Mark Butterworth, Julie Johnson
Last 5 Meetings:
01/08/2023 – Commanders, 26, Cowboys 6
10/02/2022 – Cowboys 25, Commanders 10
12/26/2021 – Cowboys 56, Football Team 14
12/12/2021 – Cowboys 27, Football Team 20
11/26/2020 – Football Team 41, Cowboys 16
All Time Head-to-Head: Cowboys lead 76-48-2
Last 5 Cowboys Thanksgiving Day Games:
11/24/22 – Cowboys 28, Giants 20
11/25/21 – Raiders 36, Cowboys 33 (OT)
11/26/20 – Football Team 41, Cowboys 16
11/28/19 – Bills 26, Cowboys 15
11/22/18 – Cowboys 31, Redskins 23
Cowboys All Time Thanksgiving Day Record: 34-25-1
WHAT’s at STAKE
If the Cowboys want to remain in the race for the NFC East crown, much less the NFC title, then a win over Washington on Thursday at home is a must. The Commanders will be a better opponent than Dallas’ last two – Panthers and Giants, but they still aren’t on the same level as the Cowboys on offense, defense or special teams. Add that to the Cowboys 12-straight wins at home and it could be a rough Thanksgiving Day away from the nation’s capital for the Commanders. However, Washington has talent and if the Cowboys don’t come prepared from the opening snap, then it could be the visitors sharing in the turkey celebration on the field after the game.
WHEN the COWBOYS HAVE the BALL
The Cowboys are facing the worst defense in the NFL – 29th in passing yards per game (258.5), 20th in rushing yards per game (114.3) and dead last in total yards (372.8) and points (27.7) allowed per game. So, the offense should be salivating at the opportunity to put up another 40-plus points on the scoreboard and register an eighth win by 20 points or more this season. The Cowboys will rely on quarterback Dak Prescott to crack the Commanders defensive code, using pass catchers CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup, Jalen Tolbert, Jake Ferguson and Luke Schoonmaker to solve a defensive coverage led by cornerbacks Emmanuel Forbes, Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste, who leads the Commanders with 15 passes knocked away this season. On the ground, the Cowboys will again try to get Tony Pollard and Rico Dowdle loose, which plays into the best the Commanders defense has to offer in linebackers Jamin Davis and Cody Barton and safety Kamren Curl, who leads the team in tackles with 88. If the Cowboys offensive line, whose starters have played just five games together this season, can block defensive tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, then the yards should come in both the pass and run games.
WHEN the COMMANDERS HAVE the BALL
In what has been a season to forget, the Commanders may have found their quarterback of the future in Sam Howell. The second-year quarterback has played every snap this season, leading the NFL with 3,038 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 11 games on 295 of 442 passing. Those dozen picks have him tied with Josh Allen for the NFL lead, which could play right into the hands of Cowboys defensive backs Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland, who has six interceptions this season to lead the NFL. Still, a solid season for a 2022 fifth-round pick that has been running for his life behind a suspect offensive line that has allowed 51 sacks for 343 yards this season. That same offensive line, led by second-round pick Sam Cosmi, has struggled with a pair of seventh round picks on the left side of the line, and two undrafted players at center and right guard. That has led to a ground attack that ranks 26th in the NFL, averaging just 95.7 yards per game. Brian Robinson Jr. leads the running game with 558 yards on 138 carries, with five touchdowns, two fumbles and a long run of 29 yards. This will be a good test for a Cowboys run defense, led by Neville Gallimore, Jonathan Hankins, Osa Odighizuwa and Mazi Smith, that has gotten better play up front over the last few games.
KEY COWBOYS to WATCH:
CB Stephon Gilmore – It hasn’t been his best season in the NFL, but Stephon Gilmore is providing the Cowboys with valuable leadership in a room full of young players. The 12-year vet is ranked 74th in the league, with a Pro Football Focus grade of 67.0. He has played 373 snaps, allowed 25 receptions on 47 targets for 373 yards and three touchdowns. While he has knocked away nine passes, he has given up a long of 68 yards this season, while quarterbacks have a passer rating of 83.0 against him. He will have his hands full with a Commanders receiving group that includes wide receivers Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel, and tight end Logan Thomas. But, if the Commanders think that picking on Gilmore is the way to go, then he could end up with his third interception of the season.
DT Neville Gallimore – After playing a season high 34 snaps in the season opening win over the Giants, Gallimore has settled into just over 17 plays per game at defensive tackle, which suits him and the defense perfectly. Gallimore has nine tackles this season, including two for loss and one sack. A sack of Sam Howell on Thursday, and Gallimore will have set a new season-high for sacks in his fourth year in the NFL. He has also knocked down a pass, all in relief of Cowboys starters Jonathan Hankins and Osa Odighizuwa. Where the Cowboys need Gallimore to improve is in run situations, where the big fella thrived last season. But coming off a career-high in tackles with 33, Gallimore has taken a step back this season.
TE Jake Ferguson – Now in his second season in the NFL, Ferguson has become a go-to target for quarterback Dak Prescott. Prescott has targeted Ferguson at least four times a game in all but two games this season, and more than seven times in five of the Cowboys 10 games so far this season. Ferguson has rewarded Prescott’s confidence with 39 catches on 55 targets, and 21 of those grabs have gone for first downs. He has 386 yards and four touchdowns – including three in the last four games, and those numbers are double his output in 16 games last season, where he finished with 19 catches for 174 yards and two touchdowns. If the Cowboys want to play late into January, then Ferguson will continue to have to be an important part of the offense.
KEY COMMANDERS to WATCH:
RG Sam Cosmi – Sam Cosmi is the rose in an otherwise garbage-filled offensive line. The third-year player out of Texas has played all 754 offensive snaps this season for the Commanders, and on 518 pressure opportunities he has allowed just one sack, 19 quarterback hurries, 24 QB pressures and has been called for three penalties – one each for holding, false start and ineligible downfield pass. His 73.4 grade in run blocking and 65.3 in pass blocking on Pro Football Focus, is good enough for 31st and 78th respectively, for players that have played in at least 50-percent of their team’s snaps this season. Cosmi will see a lot of Cowboys linebacker/edge rusher Micah Parsons, who has moved over the guards and center in obvious passing situations. If the Commanders are to have success on Thursday, Cosmi will be a big part of it on offense.
SS Kamren Curl – The leader of the Commanders defense, Curl plays the hammer in the run defense and a lock down cover safety in pass defense. He leads the team in tackles with 88 (56 solo), three tackles for loss and one forced fumble while attempting to disrupt the run games of the opposition. However, those run games are averaging 114.3 yards per game and Curl ranks as the seventh best safety of those that have played at least 80-percent of their team’s snaps. In pass defense, he has one sack and four passes knocked down, while trying to halt the air attack of the Washington opponents this season. He grades out at 75.4 in defensive coverage against receivers by Pro Football Focus, which is good enough for eighth in safeties that have played at least 80-percent of his team’s snaps this season. He has been called for no accepted penalties in 474 passing plays over 11 games. He’ll have his hands full with CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson and whatever other receiver steps up for the Cowboys.
TE Logan Thomas – If the Commanders are going to have success running or passing, then you can bet Thomas will be involved. In the passing game, Thomas is second on the team with 409 yards on 43 catches, while playing 396 snaps in 10 of 11 games this season. He has three touchdowns, but also two lost fumbles, while making just three contested grabs on 13 contested targets. He has also been called for just one penalty – a false start, while in the game during a passing situation. But it’s the two turnovers that has his low in the league’s tight end rankings, coming in at just No. 44. In the run game, Thomas has helped the Commanders rush for 95.7 yards per game this season, good enough for 26th in the league. As a blocker, he grades out at 65.5 so far this season, good enough for 21st in the NFL, but behind teammate Cole Turner (67.0). Thomas has been called for one penalty – low block, while playing 105 snaps in a run blocking role.
The BOTTOM LINE
The Cowboys are facing another losing team on Thursday, although the Commanders have played good competition close. But close doesn’t win you any games in the NFL.
The Cowboys are facing a team that is in a battle for the No. 1 overall pick in the upcoming 2024 draft. The Panthers have a rookie quarterback that is running for his life and a defense that is middle of the road at best. The Cowboys offense is crushing inferior opponents and Sunday should be more of the same. If the Cowboys defense can find their stride early, expect this one to be decided by halftime and the Cowboys giving their best players rest in the fourth quarter of another blowout.
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Commanders 13