Wild Card Preview: GB at DAL
The MATCHUP
GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-8) at DALLAS COWBOYS (12-5)
Game time: Sunday, 3:30 p.m. CST
TV/radio: FOX Sports, FOX 4 DFW / Compass Media, 105.3 The Fan, KMVK 107.5 La Grande (Spanish)
Broadcast teams: National TV – Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews (sidelines), Tom Rinaldi (sidelines); National Radio (Compass) – Kevin Ray, Danny White; (Westwood One) – Ryan Radke, Mike Golic, Laura Okmin (sidelines); Local Radio (English) – Brad Sham, Babe Laufenberg, Kristi Scales (sidelines); Local Radio (Spanish) – Victor Villalba, Luis Perez, Carlos Nava (sidelines)
Head Referee: Ron Torbert
Officiating Crew: Bryan Neale, Max Causey, Julian Mapp, Ryan Dickson, Dominique Pender, Todd Prukop, Jamie Nicholson, Larry Hill Jr. Alternatives – John Hussey, Paul King, Sarah Thomas, Rick Patterson, Greg Yette.
Last 5 Meetings:
11/13/2022 – Packers 31, Cowboys 28
10/06/2019 – Packers 34, Cowboys 24
10/08/2017 – Packers 35, Cowboys 31
01/15/2017 – Packers 34, Cowboys 31
10/16/2016 – Cowboys 30, Packers 16
All Time Head-to-Head: Packers lead 21-17-0
Postseasons Series Record: Series tied 4-4
WHAT’s at STAKE
The Cowboys played 18 weeks and 17 games to get to this point, but if they don’t bring their very best on Sunday afternoon then their season will come to an end short of their ultimate goal – the Super Bowl. A win and the Cowboys move on to the divisional round of the playoffs, where last season came to an end in San Francisco. But this is a new season and there is no time to look ahead with a hot Green Bay team coming to AT&T Stadium to open the postseason.
WHEN the COWBOYS HAVE the BALL
The Cowboys offense has another opportunity to put up big numbers at AT&T Stadium on Sunday afternoon. With quarterback Dak Prescott coming off a season worthy of a nod on the All-Pro second team, where he threw for 4,516 yards, 36 touchdowns and just nine interceptions, but it was his play at home that stands out. In eight games in Arlington, Prescott threw for 308.7 yards and 2.75 touchdowns per game, while averaging a 119.2 QB rating. Throwing to one of the game’s premier wide receivers makes his job that much easier, as CeeDee Lamb torched pass defenses for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. He had some running mates that were pretty damn good on their own in wide receivers Brandin Cooks (657 yards, 8 TDs) and Michael Gallup (418 yards, 2 TDs) and tight end Jake Ferguson (761 yards, 5 TDs). They will get a chance at the No. 16 ranked defense in the NFL this season when they take on a Packers D that allows 335.1 yards per game. The pass defense is ranked ninth behind cornerbacks Carrington Valentin (9 pass break ups), Jaire Alexander (5 pass break ups) and Keisean Nixon (6 pass break ups, 1 interception). On the ground, the Cowboys again have a chance to get their running game, and specifically Tony Pollard, on track, facing a Green Bay run defense that allows 128.3 yards per game, ranking 28th in the league this season. Pollard, who rushed for 1,005 yards this season, will be looking to make his way through the Packers defensive front led by defensive tackles Kenny Clark (44 tackles, 9 tackles for loss), T.J. Slaton (50 tackles, 2 TFL) and Devonte Wyatt, linebackers Quay Walker (118 tackles, 7 TFL) and Isaiah McDuffie (86 tackles, 5 TFL) and safeties Jonathan Owens (84 tackles, 2 TFL), Rudy Ford (71 tackles) and Darnell Savage (51 tackles, 1 TFL). If the Cowboys offense is ready from the opening kickoff, it could be a long day for defense that has had problems stopping its opponents.
WHEN the PACKERS HAVE the BALL
It’s a new era of playoffs in Green Bay, with quarterback Jordan Love making the first postseason start of his career. After sitting behind Aaron Rodgers the last three seasons, Love took over the Green Bay offense with hopes that the change would be smooth. After struggling to a 2-5 start to the season, Love finally looked to settle in, and the Packers offense started to finally hit their stride in a Week 11 win over the Chargers. They followed that up with back-to-back wins over playoff teams (Detroit, Kansas City), while going 6-2 over the final eight games of the season. Love, who threw for 4,159 yards and 32 touchdowns this season, averaged 268.7 yards per game and a 112.9 QB rating over that final half of the season. Love, along with receivers Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Christian Walker, got hot at the same time as running back Aaron Jones got healthy. Jones rushed for over 100 yards in each of the final three games, including a 127-yard effort in a win at Carolina. He will test the middle of the Cowboys defense, led by defensive tackles Osa Odighizuwa (46 tackles) and Neville Gallimore (16 tackles), linebacker Damone Clark (109 tackles) and safeties Makquese Bell (94 tackles), Donovan Wilson (88 tackles) and Jayron Kearse (72 tackles). Love has been sacked 30 times this season, and that should bode well for the Cowboys primary pass rushers – edge Micah Parsons (14 sacks) and defensive ends Dorance Armstrong (7.5 sacks) DeMarcus Lawrence (4 sacks), Sam Williams (4.5 sacks) and Dante Fowler Jr. (4 sacks).
KEY COWBOYS to WATCH:
RB Rico Dowdle – Like Tony Pollard before him, Cowboys running back Rico Dowdle is second on the depth chart but an important piece of the offense. Dowdle has carried the ball 89 times for 361 yards, with a long of 21 yards, and two touchdowns. He also has 17 catches on 22 targets for 114 yards and two more touchdowns. In his best performance of the season, he rushed for 79 yards on 12 carries and one touchdown in the Cowboys win at home over the Giants. His 6.6 yards per carry average was the best for a Cowboys running back since Tony Pollard gained 7.6 yards per carry in a Week 13 win over Indianapolis last season. His performance this season has earned him a grade of 68.4 by Pro Football Focus, which ties him for 69th with Washington Antonio Gibson and Cleveland’s Kareem Hunt. This season Dowdle has 259 yards rushing after contact, with 14 forced missed tackles.
TE Jake Ferguson – The Cowboys hit a home run in the fourth round of the 2022 draft when they took Ferguson, a tight end from Wisconsin. Ferguson finished the regular season second on the team in targets with 102, catches with 71 and yards with 761. It is the 13th best season for a tight end in a team history. Ferguson’s play earned him a 71.9 overall receiving grade from Pro Football Focus, which is seventh best – behind only San Francisco’s George Kittle (87.6), Minnesota’s T.J. Hockenson (78.8), Kansas City’s Travis Kelce (78.6), Detroit’s Sam LaPorta (76.4), Arizona’s Trey McBride (76.3) and Chicago’s Cole Kmet (73.7), this season for tight ends that have at least 70 targets. Adding it to a successful rookie season, Ferguson is tied for second with Jason Witten for most receiving touchdowns in the first two seasons with seven by a Cowboys tight end, while also being second in most receptions in the first two seasons of a career for a Dallas TE with 90 and second in most receiving yards in the first two seasons of a career by a Cowboys TE with 935. Ferguson did not play in last year’s game against Green Bay.
DE Dorance Armstrong – When they talk about the Cowboys pass rush this season, it is full of mentions about Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. However, Armstrong has been the Cowboys second best pass rushing defensive lineman this season, racking up 34 quarterback pressures – 22 hurries, three hits and nine sacks, which is second best on the team behind only Parsons (14 sacks). He has played 444 snaps on the defense line this season, with only 31 of those coming inside the tackle box. Armstrong has an overall grade of 70.1 by Pro Football Focus, which ranks him 51st among edge rushers this season that have played at least 225 snaps. He has 29 total tackles and just three missed tackles this season, which earned him a tackling grade of 71.4 by PFF, ranking him 12th among edges. He has recorded at least one tackle in every game this season, and at least one sack in the last three games of the regular season. Armstrong has played another 97 snaps on special teams. In last year’s game against Green Bay, he recorded just one tackle in the Cowboys overtime loss.
KEY PACKERS to WATCH:
SLB Rashan Gary – Now in his fifth season, Gary has become one of the leaders of the Packers defense. Listed as a linebacker in the Packers 3-4 defense, Gary is primarily a pass rushing end. His play in 2023 has produced the second-best statistical season of his career. He finished with 44 tackles, 60 quarterback pressures – 39 hurries, 11 hits and 10 sacks, with two forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and two pass break ups in 586 snaps – 584 of those coming on the defensive line, over 17 games. With all but two snaps coming outside the tackle box on the line, Gary will be facing Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith and right tackle Terence Steele. With a pass rush grade of 76.2 by Pro Football Focus, Gary is the 21st ranked defensive edge with at least 325 snaps this season. Gary has only faced the Cowboys once, recording three tackles in a 34-24 win for Green Bay in the 2019 season. He was out injured for last season’s matchup.
WR Jayden Reed – Despite missing one game, rookie wide receiver Reed still led the Packers air attack with 64 catches on 94 targets for 793 yards, with a 12.4 yards per catch average and eight touchdowns, tied for most on the team with Romeo Doubs. Reed caught at least one pass in all 16 games he played in this season, including a season high eight, on 10 targets, in the Packers 24-22 loss to the Giants in Week 15. Reed caught more than five passes in four games this season and had two multiple touchdown games – a loss at Atlanta and a win at Minnesota. Despite being the fifth receiver taken in the 2023 draft, Reed (75.1) graded out better by Pro Football Focus than all four players taken ahead of him – Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba (63.3), Los Angeles Chargers’ Quentin Johnson (58.9), Baltimore’s Zay Flowers (75.6) and Minnesota’s Jordan Addison (68.6). Los Angeles Rams’ Puka Nakua (87.9) and Kansas City’s Rashee Rice (85.0) were the only higher graded rookies than Reed.
RB AJ Dillon – This season, Dillon was the two in a 1-2 running back punch for the Green Bay Packers. Dillon, listed as the backup to Aaron Jones, played xxx total snaps, carried the ball 178 times for 613 yards, with a 3.4 yards per carry average and just two touchdowns. He finished with a grade of 76.1 among running backs with at least 140 attempts, good enough for 21st in the league this season. Dillon finished 2023 with 479 yards after contact, an average of 2.69 yards after contact per attempt. He only had three designed rushing attempts that went for 15-plus yards. In the passing game, Dillon caught 22 of 27 targets for 223 yards, but he did have one drop and no touchdowns. His PFF elusive rating – where his success and impact with the ball independently of blocking is measured, of 43.1 was good enough for 29th in the NFL. If Dillon, along with Jones, get it going on the ground Sunday, it could be a long afternoon for the Dallas defense.
The BOTTOM LINE
The Cowboys are the better team across the board. So, the playoff history between the two teams and Mike McCarthy’s tenure in Green Bay should mean nothing on Sunday afternoon when the Cowboys take on the Packers. If the Dallas offense continues to perform like they have at home all season, where they have averaged 37.4 points per game this season, then they should advance to the divisional round for the second straight season. If the Cowboys allow the ghosts of season’s past to get into their heads on Sunday, then it will a second Wild Card round exit for Dallas in the four seasons under McCarthy. With the leadership on this team, it would come as a surprise if they don’t play their absolute best for the home fans and earn a second postseason home game.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Packers 20